1. General Model Information

Name: UNCertainty analysis applied to supervised CONtrol of aphids and brown rust in winter

Acronym: TPE_UNCCON

Main medium: terrestrial
Main subject: biogeochemistry
Organization level:
Type of model: not specified
Main application:
Keywords: crop protection, winter wheat, aphid, brown rust

Contact:

Dr.ir. W.A.H. Rossing
Wageningen Agricultural University
Dept. Theoretical Production Ecology
P.O.Box 430
6700 AK Wageningen
THE NETHERLANDS
Phone: +31.8370.84766
Fax : +31.8370.84892
email: rossing@rcl.wau.nl

Author(s):

Abstract:

Uncertainty in predicted costs associated with different strategies of control of aphids and brown rust in winter wheat is calculated in a Monte Carlo approach with time steps of one day. Time horizon of the model is approximately 6 weeks. Four sources of uncertainty are distinguished: parameters, initial conditions, predictions of average daily temperature and white noise. The model can be run in two modes. To estimate (aspects of) the probability distribution of financial costs random inputs are generated by latin hypercube sampling. Results are summarized in tables. To assess the contribution of various sources of uncertainty to model output uncertainty random varieties are generated by simple random sampling. Results are stored in a data file for analysis with the SPIRAL programme of M.J.W. Jansen (Agricultural Mathematics Group (GLW-DLO), P.O.Box 100, 6700 AC Wageningen, The Netherlands).

Author of the abstract:

CAMASE (Concerted Action for the development and testing of quantitative methods for research on Agricultural Systems and the Environment):

II. Technical Information

II.1 Executables:

Operating System(s): VAX

II.2 Source-code:

Programming Language(s): FORTRAN-77

II.3 Manuals:

II.4 Data:

III. Mathematical Information

III.1 Mathematics

III.2 Quantities

III.2.1 Input

III.2.2 Output

IV. References

Rossing, W.A.H., R.A. Daamen & M.J.W. Jansen, 1994. Uncertainty analysis applied to supervisedcontrol of aphids and brown rust in winter wheat. Part 1. Quantification of uncertainty in cost-benefitcalculations. Agricultural Systems 44, 419-448

Rossing, W.A.H., R.A. Daamen & M.J.W. Jansen, 1994. Uncertainty analysis applied to supervisedcontrol of aphids and brown rust in winter wheat. Part 2. Relative importance of differentcomponents of uncertainty. Agricultural Systems 44, 449-460

Rossing, W.A.H., R.A. Daamen & E.M.T. Hendrix, 1994. Framework to support decisions onchemical pest control under uncertainty, applied to aphids and brown rust in winter wheat. CropProtection, Volume 13 (1), 25-34

V. Further information in the World-Wide-Web

VI. Additional remarks

Last review of this document by: 06.May 1997
Status of the document:
last modified by Joachim Benz Mon Jul 2 18:31:37 CEST 2007